The risks of Scotland crashing out of the EU without the UK government securing a deal have been revealed in a damning report by the London School of Economics.

Figures show that every single part of Scotland, and of the UK as a whole, will be adversely affected even in the event of a soft Brexit with single market membership maintained – however the impact of dropping off a hard Brexit cliff edge would be significantly worse.

Regional detail shows that North Ayrshire would lose 3% in value of its goods and services (GVA) under a soft Brexit scenario (equivalent to £300 million) or 5% (£500 million) with a hard Brexit no-deal.

Aberdeen would be the worst hit region, losing  4.5% in value of its goods and services (GVA) under a soft Brexit scenario (equivalent to £2.4 billion) or 7% (£3.8 billion) with a hard Brexit no-deal. Edinburgh would lose 6% GVA or £5.5 billion if no deal is struck between the UK and the EU, Glasgow would lose £5.4 billion, Fife would be hit by £1.7 billion and South Lanarkshire left worse off by £1.3 billion.

The report concludes that over a five-year period Scotland will lose out on over £17 billion with a soft Brexit situation, but by a devastating £29.4 billion if no provisions are made to halt a hard Brexit outcome.

The SNP is demanding that the UK government must now publish its own analysis into the impact of Brexit on Scotland.

Commenting, SNP MSP for Cunninghame South, Ruth Maguire, said:

“If people were in any doubt about the costs of Brexit, this report makes it perfectly clear – Scotland will pay a heavy price for being dragged out of the European single market against our will.

But while all Scottish regions, including North Ayrshire, are set to suffer, this could be twice as bad if a reckless Tory government plays fast and loose with Scotland’s economy and heads for the EU exit door without securing a deal on the single market.

The SNP has been completely consistent on this point – maintaining Scotland’s single market membership is absolutely vital in terms of protecting jobs, living standards, Scottish businesses and – as this report shows – the sale of goods and services from each and every part of our country.

While the UK government has kept under wraps its own analysis of the hefty price Scotland will pay for Brexit, they can’t keep this hidden from the public any longer. Businesses in Cunninghame South and across Scotland deserve the truth.”

It’s time for the UK government to listen up – Scotland won’t pay a £30 billion bill to be dragged off a Brexit cliff edge. We need a single market deal that works for Scotland and we need that guarantee now.”





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